The discovery of peak pressure sensitivity to the bullet start pressure got me to thinking along the same line. I believe there would be a disjointed curve that is fairly flat before touch, but has a sharp rise just where the bullet is touching the lands, then a fairly steep approach to the hard jam max initiation pressure. That would certainly explain why you either want to be in the rifling or out, but not on the hairy edge where slight differences in the could make one bullet touch and the next miss.
Another tuning technique that correlates to this is one used by several 'top-20' shooters. Shooting mostly in the mountain west, I rarely visit that rare 30+ grains of N133 area -- my cases would fry in just a few targets. In the lower nodes, I tend to decrease powder or seat the bullet slightly deeper as the temperature goes up (this from my tuning formulas prior to using a tuner). I was visiting with an eastern hall-of-famer who told me I was doing it backwards -- he let the bullet out as the temperature warmed up. After a bit more discussion, we figured out that we were starting from opposite ends of the tuning spectrum. With my light loads and western elevations, I tuned from the hard jam in. With his packed case of powder and thick eastern air, he started off the lands and gradually eased the bullet into the lands to manage his tune. He was just working on the back side of the curve. Again two different approaches to the same result. Side note: his use of a .269 neck (vs my .262 neck) gave him a fairly deep window of neck tension that probably also has a substantial impact on starting pressure.
Concerning the computer generated pressures, here are the predicted muzzle velocities: for the same range of Initiation Pressures, again all modeled with 28.4 grains of N133, 21" barrel, 65gr bullet... I'm only changing the initiation pressure:
Initiation Pressure | Peak Pressure | MV (fps) |
3620 | 52384 | 3148 |
5600 | 55343 | 3171 |
7600 | 58138 | 3191 |
9600 | 60795 | 3207 |
11600 | 63345 | 3222 |
13600 | 65805 | 3234 |
So... that 20% rise in pressure also predicts an 86fps (2.6%) increase in MV. While measuring initiation pressure directly would be difficult, this would be easy to validate by chronographing a consistent powder charge over a series of seating-depth only adjustments (probably in the .001-.002 step size). Plotting MV from a few thou before touch through to a deep hard jam should give an actual picture of the curve I described above.
Interpolating from Long's Shock Wave Theory, I'd suggest that powder charge and seating depth are not the only factors that can impact this initiation pressure. Relating this to tuners, various steel models suggest the choke pulse of the shock wave could open (or close) the rifling diameter as much as .0005". This pulse makes 5-8 trips to the end of the barrel and back while the bullet is still in the gun (speed of sound in steel is roughly 19,000 fps). Changing the tuner by even a few thou changes the timing of the reflection and thus the timing of when the pulses are reflected back onto the chamber just as the bullet has started moving. A half-thou larger (or smaller) bore would certainly affect the required starting pressure for a bullet. Similarly, the bullet is pushing with nearly 2800 pounds of force just to move the air in the barrel ahead of it. Slight changes in atmospheric air density could vary the start condition as well.
For what it is worth, I use the Quickload software as my go-to tool for winnowing the field of possibilities when I do load development for a new gun. MV has typically been within 20-30 fps of the predicted values (as measured over an Oehler 35P) for a variety of hunting and varmint cartridges. It helps me identify loads with the trifecta of: 95+% fill ratio, 95%+ burn at 2/3-3/4 of the barrel length, and a peak pressure about 5-8% below max. Using this criteria, I have found numerous sub-MOA loads within a couple tries for calibers ranging from a .222 through a .375H&H.
Rod