Jim:
Now at first glance, truth as coherence seems stupid. Or it did to me, as a young kid. But over time, I saw that all science was based on coherence. There are many things we accept because they fit; because the model we have accepted predicts them. The empirical "test" for Einstien's theory of relativity was done exactly once: the phenomena that allow for the test occur infrequently, and the expenditure of resources great. So for relativity theory, we've got one observed instance, and a theory that predicts as true" so much of what has been observed, although those predictions are available in competing theories.
It is still only a theory. Over the past 1,000 years, we've had several theories that seemed to work. They predicted things that did happen. Then we had to abandon them, slowly, grudgingly, with much fighting.
In a small way, that's where we are with the ballistics programs. If things seems to happen they can't account for, we need new ones. On the other hand, if the reported data can be explained, we can keep them. It is both their predictive power and their accuracy that is so important.
Does repointing and trimming meplats work? Yes. Were quibbling over "how much," and I, for one, am desperately hoping that amount falls inside current ballistic theory, or more accurately, that current theory can come up with an explanation for any variance.
* * *
Let me put it a different way. A man is shot & killed & his wallet taken. A 17-year old kid with a long juvenile record is seen at (near?) the crime. He has 10 arrests and one conviction for mugging as a juvenile. He's arrested and charged.
BUT: In all his previous crimes (alleged & convicted), he's used a knife. He's never hurt anybody. What do you feel your chances are as a defense attorney?
Maybe this should be a different thread, I dunno. When you were in school, I'm sure you ran into the coherence theory of truth in Philosophy 101. That's the one that says "truth" is a matter of one thing fitting with other things, rather than "I saw it."I respectfully suggest that any computer program that might preduct rersults that fly in the face of the actual results is -- just a computer program model -- nothing more and nothing else.
Now at first glance, truth as coherence seems stupid. Or it did to me, as a young kid. But over time, I saw that all science was based on coherence. There are many things we accept because they fit; because the model we have accepted predicts them. The empirical "test" for Einstien's theory of relativity was done exactly once: the phenomena that allow for the test occur infrequently, and the expenditure of resources great. So for relativity theory, we've got one observed instance, and a theory that predicts as true" so much of what has been observed, although those predictions are available in competing theories.
It is still only a theory. Over the past 1,000 years, we've had several theories that seemed to work. They predicted things that did happen. Then we had to abandon them, slowly, grudgingly, with much fighting.
In a small way, that's where we are with the ballistics programs. If things seems to happen they can't account for, we need new ones. On the other hand, if the reported data can be explained, we can keep them. It is both their predictive power and their accuracy that is so important.
Does repointing and trimming meplats work? Yes. Were quibbling over "how much," and I, for one, am desperately hoping that amount falls inside current ballistic theory, or more accurately, that current theory can come up with an explanation for any variance.
* * *
Let me put it a different way. A man is shot & killed & his wallet taken. A 17-year old kid with a long juvenile record is seen at (near?) the crime. He has 10 arrests and one conviction for mugging as a juvenile. He's arrested and charged.
BUT: In all his previous crimes (alleged & convicted), he's used a knife. He's never hurt anybody. What do you feel your chances are as a defense attorney?
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